Lack of Evidence for the Role of the p.(Ser96Ala) Polymorphism in Histidine-Rich Calcium Binding Protein as a Secondary Hit in Cardiomyopathies.

Inherited forms of arrhythmogenic and dilated cardiomyopathy (ACM and DCM) are characterized by variable disease expression and age-related penetrance. Calcium (Ca2+) is crucially important for proper cardiac function, and dysregulation of Ca2+ homeostasis seems to underly cardiomyopathy etiology. A polymorphism, c.286T>G p.(Ser96Ala), in the gene encoding the histidine-rich Ca2+ binding (HRC) protein, relevant for sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca2+ cycling, has previously been associated with a marked increased risk of life-threatening arrhythmias among idiopathic DCM patients. Following this finding, we investigated whether p.(Ser96Ala) affects major cardiac disease manifestations in carriers of the phospholamban (PLN) c.40_42delAGA; p.(Arg14del) pathogenic variant (cohort 1); patients diagnosed with, or predisposed to, ACM (cohort 2); and DCM patients (cohort 3). We found that the allele frequency of the p.(Ser96Ala) polymorphism was similar across the general European-American population (control cohort, 40.3-42.2%) and the different cardiomyopathy cohorts (cohorts 1-3, 40.9-43.9%). Furthermore, the p.(Ser96Ala) polymorphism was not associated with life-threatening arrhythmias or heart failure-related events across various patient cohorts. We therefore conclude that there is a lack of evidence supporting the important role of the HRC p.(Ser96Ala) polymorphism as a modifier in cardiomyopathy, refuting previous findings. Further research is required to identify bona fide genomic predictors for the stratification of cardiomyopathy patients and their risk for life-threatening outcomes.

Characterizing Decision-Making Surrounding Exercise in ARVC: Analysis of Decisional Conflict, Decisional Regret, and Shared Decision-Making.

BACKGROUND: Limiting high-intensity exercise is recommended for patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) due to its association with penetrance, arrhythmias, and structural progression. Guidelines recommend shared decision-making (SDM) for exercise level, but there is little evidence regarding its impact. Therefore, we sought to evaluate the extent and implications of SDM for exercise, decisional conflict, and decisional regret in patients with ARVC and at-risk relatives. METHODS: Adults diagnosed with ARVC or with positive genetic testing enrolled in the Johns Hopkins ARVC Registry were invited to complete a questionnaire that included exercise history and current exercise, SDM (SDM-Q-9), decisional conflict, and decisional regret. RESULTS: The response rate was 64.8%. Two-thirds of participants (68.0%, n=121) reported clinically significant decisional conflict regarding exercise at diagnosis/genetic testing (DCS [decisional conflict scale]≥25), and half (55.1%, n=98) in the past year. Prevalence of decisional regret was also high with 55.3% (n=99) reporting moderate to severe decisional regret (DRS [decisional regret scale]≥25). The extent of SDM was highly variable ranging from no (0) to perfect (100) SDM (mean, 59.6±25.0). Those diagnosed in adolescence (≤age 21) reported significantly more SDM (P=0.013). Importantly, SDM was associated with less decisional conflict (ß=-0.66, R2=0.567, P<0.01) and decisional regret (ß=-0.37, R2=0.180, P<0.001) and no difference in vigorous intensity aerobic exercise in the 6 months after diagnosis/genetic testing or the past year (P=0.56; P=0.34, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: SDM is associated with lower decisional conflict and decisional regret; and no difference in postdiagnosis exercise. Our data thus support SDM as the preferred model for exercise discussions for ARVC.

Arrhythmic risk stratification in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy.

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is a heritable cardiomyopathy characterized by a predominantly arrhythmic presentation. It represents the leading cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) among athletes and poses a significant morbidity threat in the general population. As a causative treatment for ARVC is still not available, the placement of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator represents the current cornerstone for SCD prevention in this setting. Thanks to international ARVC-dedicated efforts, significant steps have been achieved in recent years towards an individualized, patient-centred risk stratification approach. A novel risk calculator algorithm estimating the 5-year risk of arrhythmias of patients with ARVC has been introduced in clinical practice and subsequently validated. The purpose of this article is to summarize the body of evidence that has allowed the development of this tool and to discuss the best way to implement its use in the care of an individual patient.

Diagnostic pitfalls in patients referred for arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is challenging because of nonspecific clinical findings and lack of conclusive answers from genetic testing (ie, an ARVC-related variant is neither necessary nor sufficient for diagnosis). Despite the revised 2010 Task Force Criteria, patients are still misdiagnosed with ARVC. OBJECTIVE: In patients referred for ARVC, we sought to identify the clinical characteristics and diagnostic confounders for those patients in whom ARVC was ultimately ruled out. METHODS: Patients who were referred to our center with previously diagnosed or suspected ARVC (between January 2011 and September 2019; N = 726) were included in this analysis. RESULTS: Among 726 patients, ARVC was ruled out in 365 (50.3%). The most common presenting symptoms in ruled-out patients were palpitations (n = 139, 38.1%), ventricular arrhythmias (n = 62, 17.0%), and chest pain (n = 53, 14.5%). On the basis of outside evaluation, 23.8% of these patients had received implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) and device extraction was recommended in 9.0% after reevaluation. An additional 5.5% had received ICD recommendations, all of which were reversed on reevaluation. The most frequent final diagnoses were idiopathic premature ventricular contractions/ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (46.6%), absence of disease (19.2%), and noncardiac presyncope/syncope (17.5%). The most common contributor to diagnostic error was cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, including mistaken right ventricular wall motion abnormalities (33.2%) and nonspecific fat (12.1%). CONCLUSION: False suspicion or misdiagnosis was found in the majority of patients referred for ARVC, resulting in inappropriate ICD implantation or recommendation in 14.5% of these patients. Misdiagnosis or false suspicion was most commonly due to misinterpretation of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging.

A Systematic Analysis of the Clinical Outcome Associated with Multiple Reclassified Desmosomal Gene Variants in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Patients.

The presence of multiple pathogenic variants in desmosomal genes (DSC2, DSG2, DSP, JUP, and PKP2) in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) has been linked to a severe phenotype. However, the pathogenicity of variants is reclassified frequently, which may result in a changed clinical risk prediction. Here, we present the collection, reclassification, and clinical outcome correlation for the largest series of ARVC patients carrying multiple desmosomal pathogenic variants to date (n = 331). After reclassification, only 29% of patients remained carriers of two (likely) pathogenic variants. They reached the composite endpoint (ventricular arrhythmias, heart failure, and death) significantly earlier than patients with one or no remaining reclassified variant (hazard ratios of 1.9 and 1.8, respectively). Periodic reclassification of variants contributes to more accurate risk stratification and subsequent clinical management strategy. Graphical Abstract.

Exercise does not influence development of phenotype in PLN p.(Arg14del) cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: Endurance and frequent exercise are associated with earlier onset of arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) and ventricular arrhythmias (VA) in desmosomal gene variant carriers. Individuals with the pathogenic c.40_42del; p.(Arg14del) variant in the PLN gene are frequently diagnosed with ARVC or dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of exercise in PLN p.(Arg14del) carriers. METHODS: In total, 207 adult PLN p.(Arg14del) carriers (39.1% male; mean age 53 ± 15 years) were interviewed on their regular physical activity since the age of 10 years. The association of exercise with diagnosis of ARVC, DCM, sustained VA and hospitalisation for heart failure (HF) was studied. RESULTS: Individuals participated in regular physical activities with a median of 1661 metabolic equivalent of task (MET) hours per year (31.9 MET-hours per week) until clinical presentation. The 50% most and least active individuals had a similar frequency of sustained VA (18.3% vs 18.4%; p = 0.974) and hospitalisation for HF (9.6% vs 8.7%; p = 0.827). There was no relationship between exercise and survival free from (incident) sustained VA (p = 0.65), hospitalisation for HF (p = 0.81), diagnosis of ARVC (p = 0.67) or DCM (p = 0.39) during follow-up. In multivariate analyses, exercise was not associated with sustained VA or HF hospitalisation during follow-up in this relatively not-active cohort. CONCLUSION: There was no association between the amount of exercise and the susceptibility to develop ARVC, DCM, VA or HF in PLN p.(Arg14del) carriers. This suggested unaffected PLN p.(Arg14del) carriers can safely perform mild-moderate exercise, in contrast to desmosomal variant carriers and ARVC patients.

Vigorous Exercise in Patients With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy.

Importance: Whether vigorous intensity exercise is associated with an increase in risk of ventricular arrhythmias in individuals with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is unknown. Objective: To determine whether engagement in vigorous exercise is associated with increased risk for ventricular arrhythmias and/or mortality in individuals with HCM. The a priori hypothesis was that participants engaging in vigorous activity were not more likely to have an arrhythmic event or die than those who reported nonvigorous activity. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was an investigator-initiated, prospective cohort study. Participants were enrolled from May 18, 2015, to April 25, 2019, with completion in February 28, 2022. Participants were categorized according to self-reported levels of physical activity: sedentary, moderate, or vigorous-intensity exercise. This was a multicenter, observational registry with recruitment at 42 high-volume HCM centers in the US and internationally; patients could also self-enroll through the central site. Individuals aged 8 to 60 years diagnosed with HCM or genotype positive without left ventricular hypertrophy (phenotype negative) without conditions precluding exercise were enrolled. Exposures: Amount and intensity of physical activity. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary prespecified composite end point included death, resuscitated sudden cardiac arrest, arrhythmic syncope, and appropriate shock from an implantable cardioverter defibrillator. All outcome events were adjudicated by an events committee blinded to the patient's exercise category. Results: Among the 1660 total participants (mean [SD] age, 39 [15] years; 996 male [60%]), 252 (15%) were classified as sedentary, and 709 (43%) participated in moderate exercise. Among the 699 individuals (42%) who participated in vigorous-intensity exercise, 259 (37%) participated competitively. A total of 77 individuals (4.6%) reached the composite end point. These individuals included 44 (4.6%) of those classified as nonvigorous and 33 (4.7%) of those classified as vigorous, with corresponding rates of 15.3 and 15.9 per 1000 person-years, respectively. In multivariate Cox regression analysis of the primary composite end point, individuals engaging in vigorous exercise did not experience a higher rate of events compared with the nonvigorous group with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.01. The upper 95% 1-sided confidence level was 1.48, which was below the prespecified boundary of 1.5 for noninferiority. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this cohort study suggest that among individuals with HCM or those who are genotype positive/phenotype negative and are treated in experienced centers, those exercising vigorously did not experience a higher rate of death or life-threatening arrhythmias than those exercising moderately or those who were sedentary. These data may inform discussion between the patient and their expert clinician around exercise participation.

Subcutaneous and Transvenous Defibrillators in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy: A Comparison of Clinical and Quality-of-Life Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence guiding the selection between subcutaneous and transvenous implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) at risk for sudden death. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to compare clinical and quality-of-life outcomes between transvenous and subcutaneous ICDs among patients with ARVC. METHODS: Patients with a subcutaneous ICD (n = 57) were matched to patients with a transvenous ICD (n = 88) based on sex, proband status, primary prevention or secondary prevention, monomorphic ventricular tachycardia before implantation, and year of implantation. Appropriate therapy for ventricular arrhythmia, inappropriate shocks, and complications were compared. Quality-of-life surveys were conducted annually. RESULTS: The matched cohort (median age of 35 years, 43% men, 78% proband, and 37% secondary prevention device) were prospectively followed for 5.1 ± 2.5 years. No significant difference was observed in the rate of appropriate ICD shocks. The subcutaneous group had more inappropriate shocks (23% vs 10%) and fewer procedure-related complications (4% vs 14%) than the transvenous group (P < 0.05). The association between ICD type and the composite of inappropriate shock and complication was not statistically significant (subcutaneous vs transvenous adjusted HR: 1.43; 95% CI: 0.72-2.84). A subcutaneous ICD was associated with more body image concerns and range of motion than a transvenous ICD (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with ARVC receiving an ICD, the risk of inappropriate shocks from a subcutaneous ICD should be balanced against the significant vascular complication risk from a transvenous ICD. Patients with a subcutaneous ICD had more concerns for body image and range of motion.

Programmed Ventricular Stimulation as an Additional Primary Prevention Risk Stratification Tool in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy: A Multinational Study.

BACKGROUND: A novel risk calculator based on clinical characteristics and noninvasive tests that predicts the onset of clinical sustained ventricular arrhythmias (VA) in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) has been proposed and validated by recent studies. It remains unknown whether programmed ventricular stimulation (PVS) provides additional prognostic value. METHODS: All patients with a definite ARVC diagnosis, no history of sustained VAs at diagnosis, and PVS performed at baseline were extracted from 6 international ARVC registries. The calculator-predicted risk for sustained VA (sustained or implantable cardioverter defibrillator treated ventricular tachycardia [VT] or fibrillation, [aborted] sudden cardiac arrest) was assessed in all patients. Independent and combined performance of the risk calculator and PVS on sustained VA were assessed during a 5-year follow-up period. RESULTS: Two hundred eighty-eight patients (41.0±14.5 years, 55.9% male, right ventricular ejection fraction 42.5±11.1%) were enrolled. At PVS, 137 (47.6%) patients had inducible ventricular tachycardia. During a median of 5.31 [2.89-10.17] years of follow-up, 83 (60.6%) patients with a positive PVS and 37 (24.5%) with a negative PVS experienced sustained VA (P<0.001). Inducible ventricular tachycardia predicted clinical sustained VA during the 5-year follow-up and remained an independent predictor after accounting for the calculator-predicted risk (HR, 2.52 [1.58-4.02]; P<0.001). Compared with ARVC risk calculator predictions in isolation (C-statistic 0.72), addition of PVS inducibility showed improved prediction of VA events (C-statistic 0.75; log-likelihood ratio for nested models, P<0.001). PVS inducibility had a 76% [67-84] sensitivity and 68% [61-74] specificity, corresponding to log-likelihood ratios of 2.3 and 0.36 for inducible (likelihood ratio+) and noninducible (likelihood ratio-) patients, respectively. In patients with a ARVC risk calculator-predicted risk of clinical VA events <25% during 5 years (ie, low/intermediate subgroup), PVS had a 92.6% negative predictive value. CONCLUSIONS: PVS significantly improved risk stratification above and beyond the calculator-predicted risk of VA in a primary prevention cohort of patients with ARVC, mainly for patients considered to be at low and intermediate risk by the clinical risk calculator.

Longitudinal Prediction of Ventricular Arrhythmic Risk in Patients With Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: The arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) risk calculator stratifies risk for incident sustained ventricular arrhythmias (VA) at the time of ARVC diagnosis. However, included risk factors change over time, and how well the ARVC risk calculator performs at follow-up is unknown. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of patients with definite ARVC and without prior sustained VA. Risk factors for VA including age, nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, premature ventricular complex burden, T-wave inversions on electrocardiogram, cardiac syncope, right ventricular function, therapeutic medication use, and exercise intensity were assessed at the time of 2010 Task Force Criteria based ARVC diagnosis and upon repeat evaluations. Changes in these risk factors were analyzed over 5-year follow-up. The 5-year risk of VA was predicted longitudinally using (1) the baseline ARVC risk calculator prediction, (2) the ARVC risk prediction calculated using updated risk factors, and (3) time-varying Cox regression. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in comparison to observed VA event rates. RESULTS: Four hundred eight patients with ARVC experiencing 132 primary VA events were included. Matched comparison of risk factors at baseline versus at 5 years of follow-up revealed decreased burdens of premature ventricular complexes (-1200/day) and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (-14%). Presence of significant right ventricular dysfunction and number of T-wave inversions on electrocardiogram were unchanged. Observed risk for VA decreased by 13% by 5 years follow-up. The baseline ARVC risk calculator's ability to predict 5-year VA risk worsened during follow-up (C statistics, 0.83 at diagnosis versus 0.68 at 5 years). Both the updated ARVC risk calculator (C statistics of 0.77) and time-varying Cox regression model (C statistics, 0.77) had strong discrimination. The updated ARVC risk calculator overestimated 5-year VA risk by an average of +6%. CONCLUSIONS: Risk factors for VA in ARVC are dynamic, and overall risk for incident sustained VA decreases during follow-up. Up-to-date risk factor assessment improves VA risk stratification.

Genotype-phenotype Correlates in Arrhythmogenic Cardiomyopathies.

PURPOSE OF THE REVIEW: The definition of arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy (ACM) has expanded beyond desmosomal arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) to include other genetic cardiomyopathies with a significant arrhythmia burden. Emerging data on genotype-phenotype correlations has led recent consensus guidelines to urge genetic testing as a critical component of not only diagnosis but also management of ACM. RECENT FINDINGS: Plakophilin-2 (PKP2) ARVC/ACM is most likely to meet ARVC Task Force Criteria with right sided involvement and ventricular arrhythmias, while desmoplakin (DSP) ACM may have a normal electrocardiogram (ECG) and has a subepicardial LV scar pattern. Extra-desmosomal ACM including ACM associated with transmembrane protein 43 and phospholamban variants may have characteristic ECG patterns and biventricular cardiomyopathy. Lamin A/C and SCN5A cardiomyopathy often have heart block on ECG with DCM, but are distinct from DCM in that they have significantly elevated arrhythmic risk. Newer genes, especially filamin-C (FLNC) also may have distinct imaging scar patterns, arrhythmia risk, and risk predictors. Recognition of these key differences have implications for clinical management and reinforce the importance of genetic testing in the diagnosis and the emerging opportunities for genotype-specific management of ACM patients.

Loss-of-Function FLNC Variants Are Associated With Arrhythmogenic Cardiomyopathy Phenotypes When Identified Through Exome Sequencing of a General Clinical Population.

BACKGROUND: The FLNC gene has recently garnered attention as a likely cause of arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy, which is considered an actionable genetic condition. However, the association with disease in an unselected clinical population is unknown. We hypothesized that individuals with loss-of-function variants in FLNC (FLNCLOF) would have increased odds for arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy-associated phenotypes versus variant-negative controls in the Geisinger MyCode cohort. METHODS: We identified rare, putative FLNCLOF among 171 948 individuals with exome sequencing linked to health records. Associations with arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy phenotypes from available diagnoses and cardiac evaluations were investigated. RESULTS: Sixty individuals (0.03%; median age 58 years [47-70 interquartile range], 43% male) harbored 27 unique FLNCLOF. These individuals had significantly increased odds ratios for dilated cardiomyopathy (odds ratio, 4.9 [95% CI, 2.6-7.6]; P<0.001), supraventricular tachycardia (odds ratio, 3.2 [95% CI, 1.1-5.6]; P=0.048), and left-dominant arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy (odds ratio, 4.2 [95% CI, 1.4-7.9]; P=0.03). Echocardiography revealed reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (52±13% versus 57±9%; P=0.001) associated with FLNCLOF. Overall, at least 9% of FLNCLOF patients demonstrated evidence of penetrant disease. CONCLUSIONS: FLNCLOF variants are associated with increased odds of ventricular arrhythmia and dysfunction in an unselected clinical population. These findings support genomic screening of FLNC for actionable secondary findings.

Arrhythmic risk prediction in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy: external validation of the arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy risk calculator.

AIMS: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) causes ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). In 2019, a risk prediction model that estimates the 5-year risk of incident VAs in ARVC was developed (ARVCrisk.com). This study aimed to externally validate this prediction model in a large international multicentre cohort and to compare its performance with the risk factor approach recommended for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) use by published guidelines and expert consensus. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a retrospective cohort of 429 individuals from 29 centres in North America and Europe, 103 (24%) experienced sustained VA during a median follow-up of 5.02 (2.05-7.90) years following diagnosis of ARVC. External validation yielded good discrimination [C-index of 0.70 (95% confidence interval-CI 0.65-0.75)] and calibration slope of 1.01 (95% CI 0.99-1.03). Compared with the three published consensus-based decision algorithms for ICD use in ARVC (Heart Rhythm Society consensus on arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy, International Task Force consensus statement on the treatment of ARVC, and American Heart Association guidelines for VA and SCD), the risk calculator performed better with a superior net clinical benefit below risk threshold of 35%. CONCLUSION: Using a large independent cohort of patients, this study shows that the ARVC risk model provides good prognostic information and outperforms other published decision algorithms for ICD use. These findings support the use of the model to facilitate shared decision making regarding ICD implantation in the primary prevention of SCD in ARVC.

Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Prevalence and Arrhythmic Outcomes in At-Risk Family Members: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is a complex cardiomyopathy with autosomal dominant inheritance and age-related incomplete penetrance, characterized by a high risk of sudden cardiac death. Recent professional consensus guidelines recommend clinical cardiac lifelong serial screening for at-risk family members refined only by age, but family genotype might influence necessary screening. Although numerous studies report prevalence of disease and arrhythmia in family members and explore predictors of penetrance and arrhythmic risk, a systematic review consolidating this evidence is lacking. METHODS: We searched Medline (PubMed), Embase, The Cochrane Library, and Web of Science for studies that reported prevalence of (1) diagnosis of ARVC per 2010 Task Force Criteria and/or (2) sustained ventricular arrhythmias (VA) in at least 10 family members of definite patients with ARVC. RESULTS: We identified 41 studies, including 36 that reported diagnosis by Task Force Criteria and 22 VA. Meta-analysis of 1359 family members, from 13 unique cohorts showed an average prevalence estimate of 25% for diagnosis as per Task Force Criteria (95% CI, 0.15-0.35, I2=96.44%). Overall prevalence of VA among gene-positive family members was 18% (95% CI, 0.13-0.23, I2=33.25%) in 7 independent studies (n=597). Family genotype was a significant risk factor for diagnosis of both ARVC (odds ratio, 6.91 [95% CI, 1.27-37.70]; P=0.0005) and VA (odds ratio, 13.62 [95% CI, 0.91-204.13]; P=0.06). Male gender was not associated with disease prevalence (odds ratio, 1.18 [95% CI, 0.72-1.95]; P=0.42) or VA (odds ratio, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.51-1.29]; P=0.91). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of ARVC and VA in at-risk family members differs significantly based on family genotype. Although recent recommendations provide a guideline based only on age, we propose screening every 1 to 2 years for gene-positive family members and every 3 to 5 years for first-degree relatives of gene-elusive cases, as long as they are asymptomatic and not athletes.

A new prediction model for ventricular arrhythmias in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy.

AIMS: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular dysplasia/cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is characterized by ventricular arrhythmias (VAs) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). We aimed to develop a model for individualized prediction of incident VA/SCD in ARVC patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Five hundred and twenty-eight patients with a definite diagnosis and no history of sustained VAs/SCD at baseline, aged 38.2 ± 15.5 years, 44.7% male, were enrolled from five registries in North America and Europe. Over 4.83 (interquartile range 2.44-9.33) years of follow-up, 146 (27.7%) experienced sustained VA, defined as SCD, aborted SCD, sustained ventricular tachycardia, or appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy. A prediction model estimating annual VA risk was developed using Cox regression with internal validation. Eight potential predictors were pre-specified: age, sex, cardiac syncope in the prior 6 months, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, number of premature ventricular complexes in 24 h, number of leads with T-wave inversion, and right and left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEFs). All except LVEF were retained in the final model. The model accurately distinguished patients with and without events, with an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.73-0.81] and minimal over-optimism [calibration slope of 0.93 (95% CI 0.92-0.95)]. By decision curve analysis, the clinical benefit of the model was superior to a current consensus-based ICD placement algorithm with a 20.3% reduction of ICD placements with the same proportion of protected patients (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Using the largest cohort of patients with ARVC and no prior VA, a prediction model using readily available clinical parameters was devised to estimate VA risk and guide decisions regarding primary prevention ICDs (www.arvcrisk.com).

Association of Premature Ventricular Contraction Burden on Serial Holter Monitoring With Arrhythmic Risk in Patients With Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy.

IMPORTANCE: A high burden of premature ventricular contractions (PVCs) at disease diagnosis has been associated with an overall higher risk of ventricular arrhythmias in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC). Data regarding dynamic modification of PVC burden at follow-up with Holter monitoring and its impact on arrhythmic risk in ARVC are scarce. OBJECTIVE: To describe changes in the PVC burden and to assess whether serial Holter monitoring is dynamically associated with sustained ventricular arrhythmias during follow-up in patients with ARVC. DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this cohort study, patients with a definite ARVC diagnosis, available Holter monitoring results at disease diagnosis, and at least 2 additional results of Holter monitoring during follow-up were enrolled from 6 ARVC registries in North America and Europe. Data were collected from June 1 to September 15, 2021. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The association between prespecified variables retrieved at each Holter monitoring follow-up (ie, overall PVC burden; presence of sudden PVC spikes, defined as absolute increase in PVC burden ≥5000 per 24 hours or a relative ≥75% increase, with an absolute increase of ≥1000 PVCs; presence of nonsustained ventricular tachycardia [NSVT]; and use of ß-blockers and class III antiarrhythmic drugs) and sustained ventricular arrhythmias occurring within 12 months after that Holter examination was assessed using a mixed logistical model. RESULTS: In 169 enrolled patients with ARVC (mean [SD] age, 36.3 [15.0] years; 95 men [56.2%]), a total of 723 Holter examinations (median, 4 [IQR, 4-5] per patient) were performed during a median follow-up of 54 (IQR, 42-63) months and detected 75 PVC spikes and 67 sustained ventricular arrhythmias. The PVC burden decreased significantly from the first to the second Holter examination (mean, 2906 [95% CI, 1581-4231] PVCs per 24 hours; P < .001). A model including 24-hour PVC burden (odds ratio [OR] 1.50 [95% CI, 1.10-2.03]; P = .01), PVC spikes (OR, 6.20 [95 CI, 2.74-13.99]; P < .001), and NSVT (OR, 2.29 [95% CI, 1.10-4.51]; P = .03) at each follow-up Holter examination was associated with sustained ventricular arrhythmia occurrence in the following 12 months. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These findings suggest that in patients with ARVC, changes in parameters derived from each Holter examination performed during follow-up are associated with the risk of sustained ventricular arrhythmias within 12 months of disease diagnosis.